Frost formation is likely early today in eastern Essex and Union counties, Hudson County and portions of Nassau County, with advisories in effect until 9 a.m. EDT. Most neighborhoods inside the five boroughs should only see patchy frost, but suburban gardens and community plots are more exposed and easier to damage.
If the lake level drops below 3,490 feet - termed the minimum power pool - the turbines that generate electricity have to be shut down. When the water level reaches critically low thresholds, air is sucked down like a whirlpool into the penstocks, forming explosive bubbles which can cause massive failure inside the dam.
Kennedy predicts hot and dry conditions from the west will shift eastward later this week, allowing for a noticeable warm-up and shift towards spring-like conditions.
SWE is the most important metric for all of our water resources. It's the metric that we deal with the most and the one that the entirety of the snow research and operations community is working to get right. So, seeing an increase in SWE like that, even if it's from mid-winter rain, is a great thing because that means we have more water stored in the snowpack moving forward.
"A dry January, which is historically the wettest month of the year in California, has now eroded the gains made at the start of the year and forecasts currently show no major precipitation in the next two weeks," California Department of Weather Resources spokesperson Jason Ince wrote in a Jan. 30 news release. The first month of the year certainly left the area warmer and drier than usual, weather officials confirmed.
To get back to average snowpack, we essentially need to have the most snow that we've ever had for the last 30 years between now and mid-April. It would be extremely difficult for Colorado to get back to a normal/average snowpack. As an example, when looking at the Independence Pass SNOTEL site in central Colorado outside of Aspen, we typically have 13 inches of snow-water-equivalent at the end of February. This year, we only have 6.7 inches of SWE.
Many of us are riding the high of the recent major snowstorm wondering when the next big powder day will swing through. Unfortunately for most of North America, it looks like the snowy weather won't be returning anytime soon, or at least not for the next week. Meteorologist Chris Tomer 's Mountain Weather Update paints a rather sad picture for snowfall totals in North America between January 29th and February 5th.
Sun night (02/15) through Tue night (02/17) is the core punch, and many Sierra mountains can stack 20″-50″ in that window as snow levels crash. Expect a lighter start Sunday night, then snowfall rates ramp up hard Monday night into Tuesday with widespread coverage across Tahoe, the central Sierra, and down into Mammoth. Snow levels begin around 5,000 to 5,500 feet early, then fall into the 1,500 to 2,500-foot range by Tuesday and Tuesday night, which helps keep even lower terrain in play for all-snow.
Two waves drive the bulk of the snow, with a relatively higher snow level and denser snow early, followed by a colder surge that improves powder quality and brings the strongest winds. Expect long stretches of snowfall for the Sierra with only brief lulls, plus periods of wind-driven, low-visibility skiing on upper mountain. Southern California gets meaningful mountain snow as well, but snow levels are a bigger deal there and the best accumulation favors higher terrain.
Confidence is highest through Saturday because the individual models agree well on the timing of the Thursday storm and the following break. Southern California's mountains pick up a quick shot of snow on Thursday with strong winds, then dry out into the weekend. Beyond the weekend, the signal stays active, but model spread grows fast on storm timing, snow levels, and wind impacts, so expect meaningful swings from run to run.
