It's the folks who are entering the job market for the first time that are bearing the brunt of that, and to me, that's in a very standard, classic textbook way, exactly the type of unemployment that the Central Bank is equipped to help accommodate with looser monetary policy.
Our measure, 'observed exposure,' compares the tasks LLMs are theoretically capable of to the tasks people actually use Claude for at work. We find that actual usage is far from reaching theoretical capability.
Either way, I think the AI boom is alive and well, but with much of the short-term hype fading away, the big question is whether the long-term trajectory is still there and whether it makes sense for investors to hit the buy button now that the near-term is somewhat less hyped while the long-term is as exciting as ever.
Companies aren't rewarded for making decisions that support people or social goods. Companies are rewarded for profit. They're rewarded for being first to market. When robotics cuts labor costs or increases output, deployment becomes a business decision. Whether displaced workers are retrained or supported elsewhere depends on public policy.
Google stock has surged 75% over the past twelve months, a performance that comfortably outpaces many of its large-cap technology peers. However, this price appreciation has shifted the narrative from "deep value" to a high-stakes "execution play." While Google's P/E ratio of 27.8 remains competitive compared to the loftier multiples of the "Magnificent Seven," it is no longer the bargain it was in early 2025.
