"Our view is that large-language model digital agents can effectively do a non-immaterial portion of the work currently provided by 20-30k independent agents across the United States. The core of the firm's bearish thesis centers on a massive pool of routine, low-complexity insurance policies."
"BofA Global Research estimates more than $15 billion in insurance industry commissions are considered 'low complexity' and face a not immaterial risk of AI disintermediation. From six major carriers alone, BofA identified over $15 billion in commissions paid to independent agents in 2025 that largely skew toward low-complexity risks."
BofA Global Research warns that artificial intelligence poses a material threat to insurance distribution despite recent market optimism. The firm estimates more than $15 billion in annual commissions across six major carriers are vulnerable to AI displacement through chatbot assistants and digital agents. These commissions primarily stem from low-complexity insurance policies in personal lines and small business segments. While insurance broker stocks initially declined following news of ChatGPT-powered insurance assistants but subsequently recovered, BofA maintains that large-language models can effectively perform substantial portions of work currently handled by 20,000-30,000 independent agents across the United States.
Read at Fortune
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