"This is according to Forrester veep and principal analyst J.P. Gownder, who states in a blog: "To give you a sense of the magnitude, the US lost 8.7 million jobs during the Great Recession. The numbers aren't directly comparable, since jobs lost to AI are structural and permanent while those lost during a recession are cyclical and macroeconomic. But no matter how you view it, the numbers are meaningful and worthy of our attention.""
"The "real but modest impact" that Forrester models between 2025 and 2030 suggests that the replacement of large chunks of the workforce remains unlikely, "as labor productivity would need to accelerate significantly for AI to replace human talent at scale." The more realistic scenario, it says, is that AI will "augment" one in five roles at the end of the forecast period, indicating employers may need to invest in staff training to prepare them for a new age."
A projection estimates AI and automation could eliminate 6.1 percent of US jobs by 2030, equating to about 10.4 million positions. Those losses would be structural and permanent rather than cyclical, complicating comparisons with past recessions and absolute counts given population growth. Modeling for 2025–2030 suggests a real but modest impact, with large‑scale replacement unlikely unless labor productivity accelerates substantially. A more probable outcome is augmentation of roles—potentially one in five—prompting employer investment in retraining. Early vendor automation initiatives exist, but over‑automation risks costly pullbacks, damaged reputations, weakened employee experiences, and eventual rehiring.
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