AI Bubble Watch: Is it a Floater or a Popper?
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AI Bubble Watch: Is it a Floater or a Popper?
"OpenAI achieved a nominal value of $500 billion. In terms of valuation, the posterchild of GenAI - which is yet to make a profit - left in its dust companies like Toyota, the world's largest automaker. To put this in perspective, Toyota [PDF] sells around 10.8 million vehicles per year, accrues an operating income (profit before tax) of around $32 billion and has a market cap of a mere $250 billion."
"GPU rental business CoreWeave told US financial regulators [PDF] on Thursday it had added an incremental $3 billion tranche of delayed draw term loans to buy certain equipment, hardware, infrastructure, and other systems. In August, CFO Nitin Agrawal said the company had taken on a total of over $25 billion worth of debt and equity since the start of last year, all to fund the building of its AI cloud infrastructure."
"Last week, management consulting firm Bain & Company predicted that funding the necessary infrastructure, would require the generation of $2 trillion in revenue by 2030. According to Oracle, the former application and database company, there will be plenty of buyers for that infrastructure. It says it has a $455 billion spending pipeline from its AI datacenter customers. The problem is, some of them do not yet have the money."
OpenAI reached a nominal valuation of $500 billion despite not yet being profitable, surpassing the market capitalization of established companies like Toyota. Significant borrowing and capital spending are fueling AI infrastructure buildout, with GPU rental firm CoreWeave adding a $3 billion loan tranche and reporting over $25 billion of debt and equity raised since last year. Bain estimates that funding necessary infrastructure will require $2 trillion in revenue by 2030. Oracle reports a $455 billion spending pipeline from AI datacenter customers. OpenAI is committed to a large share of that capacity and multiple companies must borrow heavily to meet demand.
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