"Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dong estimate, based on Department of Labor job numbers, that 25% of all work hours could be automated by AI. Thus, "We expect that the AI transition will lead to a meaningful amount of labor displacement." AI won't replace jobs in a uniform way, however."
""Our baseline forecast for a 15% AI-driven labor productivity uplift and the historical relationship between technologically driven productivity gains and job loss implies that 6-7% of jobs will be displaced over the adoption period," they said. "We estimate a peak gross unemployment rate increase of around 0.6pp (corresponding to a 1 million increase in unemployed workers.""
""Technological change is a main driver of long-run job growth via the creation of new occupations-only 40% of workers today are employed in occupations that existed 85 years ago-suggesting that AI will create new roles even as it renders others obsolete." "More than 6 million workers are currently employed in computer-related occupations that did not exist 30-40 years ago, while another 8-9 million are employed in roles enabled by the gig economy, e-commerce, content c"
An estimated 25% of all work hours could be automated by AI, producing meaningful labor displacement. A baseline projection assumes a 15% AI-driven labor productivity uplift and, using historical relationships, implies 6–7% of jobs displaced over the adoption period. The peak gross unemployment rate increase is projected around 0.6 percentage points, approximately one million additional unemployed workers. Technological change historically generates large numbers of new occupations; only 40% of current workers are in occupations that existed 85 years ago. More than 6 million workers are in computer-related roles that did not exist 30–40 years ago, with another 8–9 million in gig- and platform-enabled roles.
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