"If that feels familiar, that's because we have been here before. In November 2022 ChatGPT made investors question even whether companies like Google had a future. In January 2025, China's DeepSeek challenged the entire American approach to AI, which relied on costly cutting-edge hardware. The stocks of AI-powerhouses like NVIDIA took a beating. To say that both Google and NVIDIA have been doing fine since then would be an understatement."
"Technology companies are driven by two types of cycles. The classic macroeconomic business cycle - recession, recovery, expansion, and slowdown - and various technology cycles. The latter ones describe phases of technological progress, hype, and adoption. Technology cycles are longer and eventually more important for investors. While the macroeconomic mood can cause hefty share price swings and temporarily limit access to capital, its impact is comparably short-lived."
Anthropic unveiled Claude Opus 4.6 on February 5, 2026, triggering steep software stock declines and a flight to stable assets, with Bitcoin also selling off. AI models are moving into the application layer, eroding competitive moats and forcing companies to rethink business models. Prior shocks followed ChatGPT in November 2022 and DeepSeek in January 2025, which challenged hardware assumptions and market leadership. Technology firms face both macroeconomic business cycles and longer technology cycles that govern adoption. Macroeconomic mood can cause large share swings but tends to be short-lived, while overlapping market and standardization cycles amplify AI shocks. Corporations maintain baseline IT and security spending regardless of GDP or Fed policy, muting macro effects on operational spending.
Read at Fortune
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