The failure of peace talks between the United States and Iran and renewed tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have strengthened demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, putting direct pressure on silver.
Take that flow out of the system and Brent doesn't move five or ten dollars, it moves structurally higher. A spike toward $120 or beyond becomes realistic very quickly, and that resets inflation expectations globally.
"I think it surprised me how easily people are swayed by headlines," says Suderman, noting that wartime information flows are often strategic and conflicting. "You have to learn in a wartime to take everything with a grain of salt in the context of what you observe."
Financial markets were firmly in the red as investors reacted to the Middle East conflict intensifying, with stocks down across Asia and Europe. Gold also fell, which suggests investors are once again liquidating assets that have previously served them well, or they are reacting to a further strengthening in the US dollar.
The attacks added to fears the energy crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic may be longer and more extensive than feared, with lasting damage to oil and gas production. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 6% to $113.77 per barrel, up from less than $73 per barrel on the eve of the war.