"Tesla CEO Elon Musk has provided an updated estimate for the training data needed to achieve truly safe unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD). As per the CEO, roughly 10 billion miles of training data are required due to reality's "super long tail of complexity." 10 billion miles of training data Musk comment came as a reply to Apple and Rivian alum Paul Beisel, who posted an analysis on X about the gap between tech demonstrations and real-world products."
"Musk responded to Beisel's post, stating that "Roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised self-driving. Reality has a super long tail of complexity." This is quite interesting considering that in his Master Plan Part Deux, Elon Musk estimated that worldwide regulatory approval for autonomous driving would require around 6 billion miles. Roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised self-driving. Reality has a super long tail of complexity.- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 8, 2026"
An updated estimate places required training data at roughly 10 billion miles to reach safe unsupervised full self-driving, attributing the need to reality's super long tail of complexity. The estimate was given in response to an analysis contrasting tech demonstrations with real-world products and noting a data-driven lead in autonomy. The analysis argued that catching up through simulation and limited on-road exposure alone would be naive, framing the challenge as one of scale, data, and iteration. A prior estimate for worldwide regulatory approval was around 6 billion miles, underscoring the growing data demands for deployment.
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