Sam Altman said the AI market is in a bubble, warning that investors are overexcited while affirming AI's long-term importance. Ray Dalio compared the current AI cycle to 1998–1999, noting a major new technology can change the world while investments tied to it may not all succeed, and cited high stock prices and interest rates. Thomas Siebel called the AI bubble "absolutely" huge, argued generative AI is being overvalued, and singled out OpenAI as excessively priced. Siebel added that OpenAI's disappearance would not materially alter lives or company operations because alternatives exist.
"When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth," Altman recently told reporters, per The Verge. Altman said this describes the state of play. "Are we in a phase where investors as a whole are overexcited about AI? My opinion is yes. Is AI the most important thing to happen in a very long time? My opinion is also yes," he said.
"Where we are in the cycle right now is very similar to where we were between 1998 or 1999," Dalio told the Financial Times in January. "There's a major new technology that certainly will change the world and be successful. But some people are confusing that with the investments being successful." At the time, Dalio cited high stock prices and high interest rates.
"So we have this similar thing going on with generative AI that we've seen with previous technologies," Siebel told Fortune in January. "The market is way, way overvaluing." Siebel, who leads C3.ai, singled out OpenAI in terms of overevaluations. "If it disappeared, it wouldn't make any difference in the world," he said. "Nothing would change. I mean, nobody's life would change. No company would change."
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