Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for MLB teams in 2025, revealing an unfavorable outlook for the Red Sox, forecasting a win total of 78.7, placing them last in the AL East with just a 12% chance of making the playoffs. Despite offseason improvements in pitching, including acquisitions like Garrett Crochet and Patrick Sandoval, the projections raise doubts about the team's ability to escape the bottom of the division, particularly when juxtaposed against rivals like the Blue Jays. Analysts note the Sox's offseason strategy may not be sufficient to compete effectively.
The Red Sox's PECOTA projections put them at 78.7 expected wins, last in the AL East, with only a 12% chance to make the playoffs.
Despite the Red Sox's acquisitions like Crochet and Buehler, PECOTA has them finishing behind the Blue Jays, who had a poor showing last year.
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