"2026 could mark the clearest break yet from everything investors thought they understood about Bitcoin cycles. For more than a decade, markets have leaned on the four-year halving model to predict peaks, crashes and recoveries. Under that framework, 2025 should have marked the top, with 2026 shaping up as a painful down year. But a growing number of analysts now say that model is no longer reliable, and the next phase of crypto may look very different."
"Some forecasts are surprisingly bullish. Grayscale argues Bitcoin ( BTC) could reach new all-time highs in the first half of 2026, driven by macro forces like rising global debt, fiat debasement and accelerating institutional adoption through exchange-traded products. If that happens, it would effectively invalidate the classic four-year cycle narrative. Others urge caution. Galaxy describes the year ahead as "too chaotic to predict," citing wide price ranges in options markets and looming uncertainties such as the US midterm elections and shifting monetary policy."
2026 may represent a clear break from the long-standing four-year Bitcoin halving cycle, undermining predictions of a 2025 peak followed by a down year. Several major crypto firms present divergent forecasts: Grayscale projects new Bitcoin all-time highs in early 2026 driven by rising global debt, fiat debasement and accelerating institutional adoption via exchange-traded products; Galaxy warns of chaotic and unpredictable price action due to wide options-implied ranges, US midterms and monetary-policy shifts; Bitwise and 21Shares provide additional views. Reports converge on trends including explosive stablecoin growth, rising prediction markets linked to real-world events, and increasing demand for privacy tools.
Read at Cointelegraph
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