IREN's $3.4 Billion NVIDIA Deal Points To Something Big Around The Corner

IREN shares remain volatile, falling sharply over the past week and on May 19 while still gaining year to date. Recent results included Q3 FY26 revenue of $144.80 million, below consensus, and a net loss of $247.80 million driven largely by impairments on decommissioned mining hardware. Underlying performance improved through AI Cloud Services revenue rising to $33.60 million nearly doubling sequentially. The company secured a 5-year, $3.40 billion AI Cloud contract with NVIDIA and already has a $9.70 billion Microsoft deal. Guidance targets $3.70 billion in ARR by year-end 2026, with $3.10 billion under contract, alongside significant power build and secured portfolio. Key risks include two revenue misses, negative free cash flow, convertible notes, and remaining uncontracted ARR.

"Shares closed at $47.74 on May 19, 2026, well off the post-earnings high near $60.80 but still up 459% over the past year. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for IREN is $64.62, implying 35.36% upside over the next 12 months. Our model carries a constructive rating on IREN with high (90%) confidence."

"Q3 FY26 revenue of $144.80 million missed the $219.29 million consensus, and IREN booked a $247.80 million net loss largely from $140.40 million in impairments on decommissioned mining hardware. The real signal lies underneath: AI Cloud Services revenue jumped to $33.60 million, nearly doubling sequentially from $17.30 million, while IREN locked in a 5-year, $3.40 billion AI Cloud contract with NVIDIA on top of the $9.70 billion Microsoft deal."

"The bull setup is tangible. IREN guides to $3.70 billion in ARR by year-end 2026, with $3.10 billion already under contract. The NVIDIA partnership includes rights to purchase 30 million IREN shares at $70, a potential $2.1 billion equity injection. CEO Daniel Roberts said the deal "further validates IREN's key role in the AI infrastructure ecosystem.""

"Two consecutive revenue misses matter. Q3 came in 33.97% below consensus, and free cash flow ran to negative $1.40 billion. Convertible notes payable sit at $3.69 billion, and a chunk of the ARR target remains uncontracted. Bulls would argue the headline loss reflects one-time impairments tied to retiring ASIC mi"

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