"The average American has always been misinformed about basic economic and political realities, but not to this degree. Something has fundamentally changed in how people perceive the economy, and this is far more than just media misinformation (which does play a big part). We can actually measure people's sentiment in myriad ways, and with the holiday season on the horizon, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to a seven month low of 88.7 in November, missing analysts' expectations today of 93.2."
"Payroll processing firm ADP released a report today stating that private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs a week in November, providing some credence to the missed consumer confidence reading. Neither of these firms are considered gold standard reports, that's what the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reports are for, but the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence survey is right in line with the gold standard University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey."
Perceptions of the economy have diverged sharply from economic indicators, creating a pervasive negative sentiment labeled 'vibecession.' Many people believe a recession is ongoing despite steady GDP growth and near 50-year low unemployment. Survey measures of sentiment have fallen sharply: the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index hit a seven-month low of 88.7 in November, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading dropped to levels comparable to the 2008 low. An ADP report showed private payroll declines averaging 13,500 weekly in November, offering partial support for weaker sentiment while BLS reports remain the gold standard for jobs data.
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