"Tesla entered 2025 facing challenges, including softer EV demand, competition, and the prospect of newly elected President Trump eliminating EV industry subsidies. That actually came to pass, along with the expiration of tax credits on EV purchases, leading to falling sales. U.S. deliveries in the October to December quarter are projected at around 126,000 vehicles, down over 22% year-over -year, as all the sales that could be pulled forward to beat the credit's sunsetting have been."
"Although the EV maker saw its stock surge in recent months, driven by milestones in robotaxi development and optimism around future growth in AI and autonomy, it remains anyone's guess where Tesla's stock will end up at the end of any particular day, let alone next year. However, prediction markets offer a peak into trader sentiment on which way they expect the stock to go. By betting on different outcomes, we get a window on the wisdom of crowds concerning Tesla stock."
Tesla shares pulled back from an all-time high near $499, leaving a 12.5% gain for the year. The stock rally reflected excitement over autonomous driving tests, robotaxi milestones, and investor optimism about AI, energy storage, solar infrastructure, and robotics. Analyst estimates compiled on the investor relations site forecast about a 15% drop in fourth-quarter deliveries. U.S. deliveries for October–December are projected around 126,000 vehicles, down over 22% year-over-year after pulled-forward purchases to beat expiring tax credits. Prediction markets reveal varied trader sentiment, and Wall Street remains divided heading into 2026.
Read at 24/7 Wall St.
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