Lowe's Stumbles on Weak Guidance While TJX Climbs on Broad Off-Price Beat

"Lowe's guided to total sales of $92 billion to $94 billion and adjusted EPS of $12.25 to $12.75. The midpoint of that EPS range is essentially flat with FY25's $12.28, which likely explains the muted market reaction. Moreover, housing starts declined 5.8% year over year through December 2025, giving CEO Marvin Ellison's cautious tone real macro grounding."

"TJX delivered the cleaner story with adjusted EPS of $1.43 beating the $1.39 estimate. Comparable sales grew 5%, well above plan, with HomeGoods up 6% and TJX Canada up 7%. Adjusted pretax profit margin expanded 60 basis points to 12.2%. Full-year revenue crossed $60B for the first time."

"Lowe's revenue of $20.58 billion grew 10.9% year over year, though that growth was largely acquisition-driven via FBM and ADG. Comparable sales rose just 1.3%, with Pro, online, and home services as the primary contributors. Adjusted operating margin contracted 41 basis points year over year to 9.02%."

Lowe's and TJX reported Q4 results with contrasting market outcomes despite both beating expectations. Lowe's achieved adjusted EPS of $1.98 versus $1.94 estimate and revenue growth of 10.9%, but comparable sales rose only 1.3% with acquisition-driven growth. Operating margins contracted 41 basis points. FY26 guidance showed flat EPS midpoint at $12.25-$12.75 versus FY25's $12.28, disappointing investors amid declining housing starts. TJX delivered stronger results with adjusted EPS of $1.43 beating $1.39 estimate and comparable sales growth of 5%. HomeGoods and TJX Canada showed particular strength. Adjusted pretax profit margins expanded 60 basis points to 12.2%, and full-year revenue exceeded $60 billion for the first time, driving positive investor sentiment.

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