"Traditionally speaking, Thanksgiving in America and then the first few weeks of December tend to be seen as important markers in the NHL season -- the moment at which early-season trends and struggles can no longer be completely waved away as "small-sample-size theater," but instead need to be taken at least a little bit seriously. That truth goes especially for teams that went into the season with aspirations for a playoff berth,"
"By now, it's fair to say the two-time defending champs might actually be in a bit of trouble. Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov haven't played a single game yet this season due to injuries -- the former is skating again and may be back relatively soon, but the latter figures to be out until at least the playoffs -- while holdover names like Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling, Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad and, in net, Sergei Bobrovsky"
Thanksgiving and the first weeks of December function as key evaluative markers in the NHL season when early trends require serious attention. The 2025-26 season contains numerous teams that began with optimistic playoff expectations but now face longer odds. Eight such teams are identified based on preseason Elo playoff probabilities contrasted with current standings. Each team is paired with a “nemesis” opponent whose fate most inversely correlates with its own, representing the primary obstacle to postseason recovery. Numbers cited are current as of Dec. 12, 2025. The two-time defending champions face significant injury absences, notably Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov, affecting their outlook.
Read at ESPN.com
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