"Generally when a pitcher is unsigned this late in the offseason, there's a likely mismatch between their expectations and reality. In terms of late-signing quality free agent pitchers who did not receive a qualifying offer, one recent example was Jordan Montgomery. He went out looking for over $100MM, and wound up signing a one-year deal (with a vesting option) on March 26th of 2024."
"We projected two years and $32MM for Giolito back on November 6th. When I was making my own projection in October, I went with three years and $51MM, but didn't mind bringing that down given the uncertain status of his elbow. That injury ended Giolito's season on September 23rd; he wasn't able to make it back for the postseason."
"Jake Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer for 2020, but wound up pitching only 13 2/3 innings for the Twins due to injuries and the shortened season. We pegged him for three years and $39MM nonetheless, and it was later revealed his asking price was indeed in that range. Amid a pandemic, Odorizzi wasn't able to find that, and instead settled for a $23.5MM guarantee from the Astros on March 8th."
Lucas Giolito and Zack Littell have lingered in free agency despite being quality pitchers without qualifying offers. Historical precedent suggests late-signing pitchers typically face gaps between their asking prices and market reality. Giolito was projected at two to three years and $32-51 million, but his September elbow injury that ended his season creates uncertainty despite his claims of full health in November. Similar situations like Jordan Montgomery seeking over $100 million before settling for a one-year deal in March 2024, and Jake Odorizzi asking for $39 million but accepting $23.5 million, demonstrate how expectations often exceed actual market value. Teams like the Braves, Angels, and Athletics could accommodate these pitchers in their rotations but remain unwilling to meet their price points.
Read at MLB Trade Rumors
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