Astronomers have reported that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth in December 2032, making it the most threatening asteroid forecasted. Despite this alarming statistic, the likelihood of a direct impact remains slim, approximately one in 32. The asteroid, discovered in December 2024, is 40 to 100 meters wide and poses a potential risk to populated areas. Experts acknowledge that the risk assessment could change, indicating ongoing monitoring and uncertainty in predicting asteroid paths and impacts.
The chance for a direct hit is now one in 32. This is the highest impact probability we have seen for an asteroid of this size or larger, says Davide Farnocchia.
2024 YR4 has a 3.1 percent chance of striking our planet during another close encounter in late 2032, making it the most threatening asteroid forecasted to impact Earth.
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