Should You Buy Crypto Before or After the Next Fed Rate Cut?

The Fed kept rates unchanged at its April 29 meeting for the third straight time, and prediction markets currently imply a high probability of another hold at the June 16-17 meeting. The timing of the next cut depends on when policy changes actually occur, and current forecasts suggest delays that could extend for years. Historical behavior around Fed cuts since 2019 has not followed a single pattern. Bitcoin often rallied before the first cut in 2019 as easing was priced in months ahead, then sold off after the July 31 cut and failed to recover after later cuts. The impact of each move has depended heavily on whether it represented a new policy shift or merely confirmed expectations.

"The Fed held rates again at its April 29 meeting, the third straight hold this year, and prediction markets currently price roughly a 90% chance of another hold at the June 16-17 meeting. So the question of whether to buy crypto before or after the next cut breaks down into two parts: when does the cut actually come, and what has crypto done every time the Fed moved before? We went back through every Fed rate cut since 2019 to see what could be on the cards for the upcoming FOMC meetings."

"At the last FOMC meeting on April 29, of the 12 members, Stephen Miran voted for a cut, while Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan voted to maintain the rate but opposed the easing bias in the statement. So, 4 members in total dissented, while 8 agreed. Therefore, the general consensus around the crypto community is that the next Fed rate cut is not coming soon. Additionally, prediction markets price roughly a 97% chance the Fed holds rates at the June 16-17 meeting, while J.P. Morgan projects rates unchanged through year-end."

"The rate cut pattern since 2019 is messier than most people expect. Some cuts triggered rallies; others triggered sell-offs. The context around each cut—whether it signaled a genuine policy shift or just continued what was already priced in—mattered just as much as the cut itself. July-October 2019 The Fed cut three times in 2019: July 31, September 18, and October 30, and didn't wait for any of these cuts before rallying."

"BTC climbed from $9,000 in late June to $13,000 by mid-July, pricing in the easing cycle months before the first cut arrived. When the July 31 cut happened, the market sold the news. The two follow-up cuts in September and October also produced no recovery. Then by December, Bitcoin"

Read at 24/7 Wall St.