Recent data from the European Space Agency (ESA) reveals that the uncertainty surrounding asteroid 2024 YR4's orbit is decreasing, although its probability of impacting Earth remains low at 2.4 percent. This comes from observations up to February 17, allowing scientists to narrow down the asteroid's potential trajectories. While the Earth is currently within the risk corridor, further data from the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to help refine estimates, ensuring the risk assessments can be updated accordingly.
The latest estimates show the close approach uncertainty for asteroid 2024 YR4 has decreased, while its probability of impact with Earth remains low at 2.4 percent.
Despite a 2.4 percent probability of impact, the narrowing uncertainty in asteroid 2024 YR4’s trajectory indicates ongoing scientific efforts to monitor and refine orbital calculations.
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