"Polymarket bettors correctly predicted nearly the entire slate of Golden Globe winners last week, prompting a celebration from Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. "We have a long way to go to educate the public on the value of market-based forecasts, but you can't deny its accuracy," Coplan wrote. "People have more clarity about the world because Polymarket exists.""
"Traders on Kalshi have bet almost $900,000 as of Saturday afternoon on whether more than 12 inches of snow will fall in New York City on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, traders have bet about $210,000 on how much snow New York City will see this weekend. The winning category is now 8 to 10 inches."
"The new markets are not strictly regulated, and some bets have looked a lot like insider trading. A last-minute bet on Polymarket earlier this month that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be ousted netted strong returns after the US captured Maduro in a surprise raid hours later."
Winter Storm Fern is expected to bring heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the South, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Northeast, potentially impacting some 180 million Americans and prompting thousands of flight cancellations. Traders on prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have placed large bets on New York City snowfall totals, with nearly $900,000 wagered on Kalshi for over 12 inches and about $210,000 on Polymarket, where 8 to 10 inches is the current leading outcome. Prediction markets offer real-time price signals that can reflect collective expectations, but they operate with limited regulation and have produced controversial, insider-like wins.
Read at Business Insider
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