The Climate Prediction Center forecasts heightened tropical cyclone risk beginning September 17. Models indicate a 40–60 percent chance of storms developing in the central Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands and moving west toward the Lesser Antilles. Forecasters assign a 20–40 percent probability of cyclone formation in the northwest Caribbean and Gulf of America over the next two weeks. A strong tropical wave off Africa around September 20 could raise eastern Atlantic odds to 40–60 percent. September 10 is the seasonal peak; this year marks the first climatological peak in nearly a decade without a named storm in the basin. Roughly 40–60 tropical waves typically move westward during the season, with about one in five becoming a tropical storm or hurricane.
"'No tropical storms or hurricanes over the Atlantic basin on Sept. 10 has only happened three times over the last 30 years,' DaSilva added."
"'There is a low risk that a new tropical wave moving across the primary Atlantic development region could develop in the coming days,' DaSilva said."
Read at Mail Online
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