U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Rising for the First Time in Two YearsThey Could Climb Far Higher

"After more than two years of progress on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the U.S. is on track to record an estimated 2.4 percent increase in 2025 compared with 2024, according to a new Rhodium Group report. The findings indicate the energy costs of the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence data center industry and cryptocurrencies, with emissions tied to the power sector rising by an estimated 3.8 percent in 2025."

"Last year's colder-than-average winter months also drove up demand for heat in buildings, pushing up emissions by 6.8 percent compared with 2024. Based on historic and forecasted sectoral consumption data, the largest source of increased electricity use was commercial buildings, where data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations, and other large load customers drove electricity demand up by 2.4%, the analysts write in the report."

"And while transportation contributed more greenhouse gasses than any other sector in 2025, it saw almost no increase in emission levelslikely because more hybrid and electric vehicles were on U.S. roads, the report argues. Looking ahead, the Trump administration's sweeping changes to the U.S.'s energy policies and push to open more AI data centers will almost certainly stymie the country's progress to reducing emissions, the report finds."

After more than two years of declines, U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions are projected to increase 2.4 percent in 2025 compared with 2024. Emissions tied to the power sector are estimated to rise 3.8 percent in 2025. A colder-than-average winter increased demand for building heat, boosting emissions by 6.8 percent versus 2024. Commercial buildings were the largest source of increased electricity use, with data centers, cryptocurrency mining operations, and other large-load customers raising electricity demand by 2.4 percent. Transportation remained the largest-emitting sector but showed almost no growth in 2025 as hybrid and electric vehicle adoption increased. Federal policy shifts and planned expansion of AI data centers threaten further progress on emissions reductions.

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