In 2022, Democrats succeeded in key swing states, defying midterm trends, which ironically set up overconfidence that may doom them in 2024.
The success in 2022 allowed Democrats to quarantine swing states, winning key races, but it also led to false optimism about Trump's unacceptability.
Democratic confidence grew after the defeat of Trump candidates in 2022, masking rising retrospective approval ratings for Trump in 2023.
Had the midterms gone as predicted with greater GOP gains, Biden might have faced pressure to exit the 2024 race much earlier.
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