In my first foray into polling data, I focus on high-quality pollsters and weigh the relevance of polls by their closeness to the election day.
Polls from up to 90 days before the election are weighted linearly, reflecting their decreasing relevance as the election approaches.
Focusing on the seven swing states crucial for determining the election outcome, I found Harris leading in most, while Trump leads in Arizona and Georgia.
The analysis acknowledges significant polling errors from previous elections while adapting methods to current dynamics shaped by Trump's influence, honing in on upcoming trends.
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