A trillion dollar question: Will SpaceX's Starship launch go well?

SpaceX is preparing for a public offering while conducting a critical test of its largest rocket. A heavily redesigned Starship will launch using dozens of new Raptor 3 engines powered by a novel fuel system in the booster. The rocket will include upgraded avionics, satellites, and test ports for a future refueling system intended to enable longer-range missions such as reaching the Moon and Mars. The launch occurs less than a month before investors expect SpaceX’s initial public offering, with analysts projecting potential fundraising up to $75 billion and valuation up to $1.5 trillion. The IPO outcome may depend heavily on Starship’s performance, since a poor launch could reduce investor enthusiasm. SpaceX is spending billions annually on Starship development, which is consuming profits from its launch business, which reported a $662 million loss in the first quarter.

"The launch is set to conduct a launch of a heavily redesigned version of its Starship rocket. The new rocket will fly using dozens of new Raptor 3 engines powered by a novel fuel system in the booster. It will also carry upgraded avionics, satellites, and test ports for a future refueling system that could allow Starship to one day reach other destinations like the Moon and even Mars."

"Many analysts expect SpaceX to raise up to $75 billion, and to be valued at up to $1.5 trillion. The amount raised could make this the largest IPO ever, and make SpaceX one of the most valuable companies in the world. But a lot of that may rest on how Starship performs."

"The launch is "super important for the IPO," said Franco Granda, a senior researcher who covers SpaceX for the data firm, PitchBook. He believes that if Starship's launch goes badly, it could cause investors' excitement for the IPO "to diminish quite dramatically." "Even though tests are inherently tests, and failure typically doesn't dictate what happens later on, I think SpaceX will want to get this one right," he said."

"Financial disclosures released on Wednesday show just how critical the test is. SpaceX is spending billions of dollars per year developing Starship. The development is eating up the profits from its launch business, which operated at a $662 million loss in the first quarter of this year. Cheap, frequent launches key to the business model Starship is unlike any rocket ever built."

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