"There's a strong case to extend Bieber, especially if the Blue Jays believe he can get back to his pre-injury form. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Bieber had a 1.63 ERA and 2.07 FIP in 77.1 innings pitched, winning the American League Cy Young. The following two seasons, Bieber produced a 2.97 ERA and 2.92 FIP in 296.2 innings pitched, with a 27.8 K% and 5.8 BB%."
"There's risk involved for both parties when it comes to extensions. Bieber has missed significant time in 2021, 2023, 2024, and 2025 due to injuries. There's no telling how much time he'll miss if the Jays extend him, but it's not a good sign. Moreover, who knows if Bieber will return to the form he showed before the 2023 season?"
Bieber opted in for a $16 million salary before free agency. The Blue Jays signed Dylan Cease, reducing the team's need for two starters. Bieber won the 2020 AL Cy Young with a 1.63 ERA and showed strong results through 2021-22 with a 2.97 ERA across 296.2 innings. He pitched just 128 innings in 2023 and required Tommy John surgery after two 2024 starts. Cleveland traded Bieber to Toronto before the 2025 deadline. Upon returning, Bieber posted a 3.57 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 40.1 innings and delivered a mixed postseason with a 3.86 ERA in 18.2 innings. Multiple injury-plagued seasons create extension risk, and a strong 2026 could make an early deal financially unfavorable for Bieber.
Read at BlueJaysNation
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