"My take is that revenue will be flat to slightly up in comparison to 2024 - low single-digit growth at max. 2024 was up 4% from projections, which surprised everyone in the beauty industry and across CPG in general. However, with rising costs of living and tariffs - which will start to trickle down to the consumer right in time for the holiday season - consumers have less disposable income to spend, and so they are making extremely conscious decisions about where to spend that."
"Honestly, it's both. But during the holidays I always tilt heavier toward new customers compared to the rest of the year. Holiday is one of the rare moments where consumer behavior naturally shifts - people are browsing, sampling and purchasing outside of their usual go-to brands. That inevitably creates an opportunity to drive trial [testing] at scale."
Expectations for 2025 holiday revenue center on flat to low single-digit growth relative to 2024. Rising costs of living and new tariffs will reduce consumer disposable income, prompting more deliberate and value-driven purchase decisions. Holiday periods create atypical consumer behavior, increasing browsing, sampling and purchases outside usual brands, which presents a scalable opportunity to drive trial and acquire new customers. Brands should allocate holiday marketing toward customer acquisition while optimizing offers and testing tactics to convert first-time buyers into repeat purchasers amid tighter consumer budgets.
Read at Modern Retail
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