The article discusses the significance of scenario planning in navigating business uncertainty. It emphasizes that uncertainty poses the greatest risk to businesses, contrary to the idea of merely planning for worst-case scenarios. Scenario planning is introduced as a mature strategic approach, initially developed by Herman Kahn in the 1950s, which helps organizations anticipate various outcomes rather than simply reacting to predicted changes. The piece highlights that without embracing the full scope of possible futures, businesses could miss opportunities and underperform during moderate scenarios.
Scenario planning is not about predicting the future, but rather about preparing for a range of possible outcomes in an uncertain business environment.
If we focus purely on mitigation - what some call 'red light planning' - we won't be as efficient or effective in best-case outcomes.
#scenario-planning #business-strategy #uncertainty-management #risk-assessment #organizational-planning
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