"ESPN ran a computer simulation of the entire NBA season, and it has the Heat finishing with a record of 42-40 and finishing 8th in the Eastern Conference. For what it is worth, this same simulation has Miami making the semifinals of the NBA Cup, but also has them crashing out during the play-in round and not making the main field of 16 in the playoffs."
"While there are arguments Miami needs to take a "gap year" in 2025-26 and not do anything too crazy to try and shore up a flawed roster that is built on youth, a 42-40 season would keep the Heat in no man's land without a real directive of whether to be buyers or sellers heading into next year. The problem with finishing in the middle of the NBA is that you're not in a position to grab a premium prospect out of the draft, but you're also not an appealing option for a big-time free agent looking to make a deep run."
"What this model also highlights is that, on paper, the ceiling for Heat is low entering the new season. We are going to assume it doesn't factor in all the injuries Miami has piled up early, including Tyler Herro missing at least a month. It also doesn't factor in that things have just looked off in the preseason, and Miami is sitting with a 0-5 record in preseason play."
ESPN's computer simulation projects the Miami Heat to finish 42-40 and 8th in the Eastern Conference. The simulation also projects Miami reaching the NBA Cup semifinals but losing in the play-in round and failing to reach the 16-team playoff field. A 42-40 record would place the Heat in middling territory, complicating decisions about pursuing major trades or remaining steady. The roster's youth and early injuries, including Tyler Herro missing at least a month, reduce upside. Miami's 0-5 preseason record intensifies concerns. Erik Spoelstra must adjust rotations and successfully implement an up-tempo offense to improve results.
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