How AP uses expected vote instead of precincts reporting' when determining a winner
Briefly

As elections evolve, the traditional methods of tracking vote count progress have become less reliable, complicating how we determine the completion of vote tallies.
The historic method of counting precincts can mislead as not all precincts are equal in population; thus, percentages may not reflect true vote counting progress.
Some states misrepresent their reporting by counting precincts that have only partially reported results, leading to confusion about the actual vote count status.
The rise of mail and early in-person voting has changed election dynamics, with some states grouping all pre-Election Day votes into a single precinct.
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