Moldova's vote is one more sign of Russia's weakness in its near abroad'

"Instead of boosting its geopolitical sway, the war in Ukraine has weakened Russia's hold over its neighbours. On September 28, the governing pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) in Moldova emerged victorious in the general election. It not only defeated the Russia-friendly Patriotic Electoral Bloc (PEB) but also confirmed a new geopolitical trend. Across post-Soviet Eurasia, Russia is losing ground amid the continuing Russian aggression against Ukraine."

"In Moldova, the stellar result for PAS defied predictions of a tight race. In the run-up to the elections, pro-Russian forces under the umbrella of PEB appeared to have momentum. Society was evenly split and economic uncertainty weighed on Moldova. However, the tide turned in late summer with old tensions between parties within the PEB resurfacing. The Central Electoral Commission was given a reason to ban two overtly pro-Russian parties over allegations of illegal financing."

"The government also secured the extradition from Greece of fugitive oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc, accused of playing a key role in the theft of $1bn from Moldovan banks. The drama energised the Moldovan diaspora in the West, a strong supporter of the European Union. As a result, PEB and other opposition parties did well only in their strongholds in the Gagauz region of northern Moldova and Transnistria."

The war in Ukraine has weakened Russia's influence across post-Soviet Eurasia and prompted several countries to turn away from Moscow. In Moldova, the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) won the September 28 general election, defeating the Russia-friendly Patriotic Electoral Bloc (PEB). Pre-election momentum favored pro-Russian forces amid economic uncertainty and a polarized society. Late-summer intra-PEB tensions and Russian information operations portraying PAS as a Western puppet backfired. The Central Electoral Commission banned two overtly pro-Russian parties over alleged illegal financing. The extradition of oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc energized the pro-EU diaspora, limiting PEB success to Gagauz and Transnistria strongholds.

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