The projections confirm what we have been seeing for some time, which is that if the demographic trends in the state do not change, its population will continue to decline. This suggests that New York's demographic landscape reflects a broader trend of declining birth rates and an aging population, leading to a potential loss of over 2 million residents by 2050.
Conservative estimates suggest a population decrease of 1 million by 2050, but we think an even greater decline is more likely. Our analysis indicates that New York could see its population drop significantly from 19.7 million to under approximately 17 million, which poses serious implications for the state’s economy and political power.
The expected decline in population is due to declining birth rates and aging and dying residents not being offset by new domestic or foreign arrivals. The data suggests a troubling trend, with projections indicating that the number of children from birth to age 17 could fall between 10% and 25% over the coming 25 years.
New York particularly suffered a loss of population during and following the COVID-19 pandemic, with massive deaths and others fleeing the infection-ravaged state. The ramifications of such a demographic shift could lead to a reduction in New York's representation in Congress, as other states with growing populations gain House seats.
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