"According to Enten, Cuomo will need to become Teddy Roosevelt overnight if he has any hope of closing in on Mamdani's lead. Mamdani's September lead of 15 points is now at 18 points, according to Enten's aggregate polling. In September, Mamdani was leading the three major candidates with 45%. Cuomo followed with 29% support and Sliwa came in last with 17%. Current polling now shows Mamdani at 49%, Cuomo at 31%, and Sliwa at 15%."
"So if Andrew Cuomo is going to come back and win, either something like Curtis Sliwa has to drop out of the race, or you need a polling miss that is nearly twice as large as the largest miss on record, Enten said. So you're going to probably need something historically unprecedented for Andrew Cuommo to win this race if the polling average holds through election day."
Zohran Mamdani leads the New York City mayoral race with 49%, Andrew Cuomo has 31% and Curtis Sliwa has 15% in the current aggregate polling. Mamdani's lead widened from 15 points in September to an 18-point advantage. With roughly two and a half weeks remaining, Cuomo would need an unusually large shift to overcome the gap. Historical data show the largest average final polling error in the last 21 days of mayoral elections since 1989 is 11%. A comeback would therefore require either Sliwa to exit or a polling miss nearly twice that historical average.
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