Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially reported to have a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth, has new estimates suggesting it may instead hit the Moon. Using the James Webb Telescope, astronomers have determined the risk of impact with Earth is highly unlikely, now close to zero. However, there remains a 2% chance of lunar collision, which could provide a unique observational opportunity for scientists. Such an event would not endanger Earth, but seeing an impact of this size would be unprecedented since prior incidents of this magnitude have never been documented.
Astronomers utilized the James Webb Telescope to analyze 2024 YR4 and determined it has a 2% chance of hitting the Moon, rather than Earth.
If the asteroid 2024 YR4 collides with the Moon, it wouldn't pose any danger to Earth but would provide a valuable opportunity to observe a lunar impact.
NASA and ESA once reported a concerning 3.1% chance of collision with Earth, but recent data suggests the risk was greatly overestimated.
It's significant that we've never witnessed an impact of an object larger than 50 meters on the Moon, making 2024 YR4 a unique observational opportunity.
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