On February 18, NASA announced a 3.1% chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 would strike Earth in 2032. This risk was updated down to 1.5%, then further reduced to 0.004%. Additionally, there is a 1.7% chance of it impacting the Moon. These calculations are reminiscent of early scientific endeavors in the 1700s, where such celestial predictions faced skepticism. Jonathan Swift's satire highlighted scientific overconfidence, particularly towards Newton's contemporaries like Edmond Halley, who dared to apply mathematics to cosmic phenomena, laying the groundwork for modern scientific thought.
NASA's recent asteroid discovery, 2024 YR4, initially had a 3.1% chance of striking Earth in 2032, but this was significantly reduced to just 0.004%.
Celestial collision fears date back to the early 1700s, marking the beginnings of cosmic risk calculations in a period questioning the legitimacy of scientific prediction.
Jonathan Swift's 1726 satire in Gulliver's Travels criticized early scientists, mocking their confidence in comet predictions and highlighting the societal fears of cosmic collisions.
Edmond Halley's 1705 calculations applying Newton's theories laid early groundwork for the scientific method's potential, amidst skepticism towards the legitimacy of scientific inquiry.
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