The newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 poses a 2.2% risk of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, as determined by the European Space Agency. This risk has increased from 1.2% due to new observations. The agency anticipates that increased monitoring will clarify the asteroid's size and trajectory, likely reducing the impact threat. Past experiences with asteroids, like Apophis, have shown that initial risk assessments can change significantly over time, underscoring the importance of continuous observation to refine prediction models regarding potential impacts.
The more observations we get, the more we can localise and confirm the asteroid's trajectory, which is most likely to turn out to be a flyby, and not an impact.
The asteroid is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet wide, comparable to that of a large building, and its exact size remains highly uncertain.
Astronomers expect the percentage to evolve as more observations are shared. The chances of impact will rise and then fall over time.
In 2021, scientists revised the opinion on asteroid Apophis after precise analysis, suggesting a similar trend might be seen with 2024 YR4.
Collection
[
|
...
]