A new analysis reveals that asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 2.1% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, down from earlier estimates. This asteroid may also threaten the moon with a 0.3% chance of impact. If it were to collide with either body, the consequences would be catastrophic, with potential explosive power far exceeding that of historic nuclear blasts. Calculations by Dr. David Rankin highlight the need to monitor this asteroid closely given its significant impact probabilities and potential for severe damage.
If the asteroid does hit Earth, the impact could release a blast of energy equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT - 100 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima during World War II.
2024 YR4 is still the only large asteroid with an impact probability greater than one percent - making it by far Earth's biggest threat.
Dr Rankin's calculations present a chilling new possibility that the asteroid could collide with the moon instead.
The collision would unleash an explosion 343 times the size of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima and carve out a crater up to 1.2 miles (2km) wide.
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