America lied about the Iraq war. Then they weren't believed about Ukraine | Moustafa Bayoumi

"Both the CIA and MI6 had amassed troves of deep intelligence about the impending war and were issuing dire notices to their allies about the inevitability of an invasion by Putin. Those warnings were all but ignored in key European capitals. Why? In large part because US and British intelligence were considered untrustworthy after the extraordinary intelligence debacle in the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq."

"A heated conversation between an unnamed European foreign minister and Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state at the time, revealed the skepticism: 'I'm old enough to remember 2003, the foreign minister informs Blinken, and back then I was one of those who believed you.' The reluctance to trust intelligence warnings was definitely a legacy of Iraq, according to Britain's defence attache in Russia."

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, following its 2014 occupation of Crimea. Despite escalating tensions, the invasion surprised many, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. However, CIA and MI6 had gathered extensive intelligence predicting the invasion and issued warnings to allies about its inevitability. These warnings were largely disregarded by key European capitals. The primary reason for this dismissal was the damaged credibility of US and British intelligence following the flawed intelligence that preceded the 2003 Iraq invasion. European leaders, having been misled before, remained skeptical of similar warnings, even when they proved accurate regarding Ukraine.

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