What's Russia's next move amid its latest attacks against Ukraine?

Russia’s attacks on Kyiv occur as the war in Ukraine is not going well for Russia, with slow front movement and territory losses. Russian unease grows as Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign targets not only Russian oil facilities but also brings the war closer to Russian cities and people. The Kremlin uses a massive weekend attack to send two messages: strength to the Russian public and warning to Europe. The use of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, which can reach targets across Europe and is difficult to intercept, is presented as leverage against Ukraine’s Western supporters. The warnings build on prior threats toward Baltic states over alleged support for Ukraine’s use of airspace.

"I think this is happening at a time when the war in Ukraine isn't going well for Russia. The front is barely moving on some parts. The Russians are even losing territory for the first time since October 2023. And your reporter just hinted at this - there's this growing Russian unease about Ukraine's deep-strike campaign, which is not just targeting oil facilities in Russia, deep inside Russia. But it's also bringing the war closer to Russian cities, to the Russian people. And the Russians don't have a good answer to this."

"So I think with this massive attack on the weekend, the Kremlin is sending messages to two different audiences, really. First, it wants to signal strength to the Russian people, basically saying, you know, we are standing up for ourselves. We're pushing back here. And the second message is really to Europe. Your reporter noted the use of the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile, which can hit targets across Europe and is very difficult to intercept."

"So what the Russians are doing here is they're signaling to Ukraine's Western supporters that Russia could escalate against them if they don't stop supporting Ukraine. And this, Steve, is just really building on similar warnings that the Russians have issued over recent months. They, for example, threatened the Baltic states recently... Accusing them of allowing Ukraine to use their airspace."

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