Retraction Note: The economic commitment of climate change

"The authors have retracted this paper for the following reasons: post-publication, the results were found to be sensitive to the removal of one country, Uzbekistan, where inaccuracies were noted in the underlying economic data for the period 19951999. Furthermore, spatial auto-correlation was argued to be relevant for the uncertainty ranges. The authors corrected the data from Uzbekistan for 19951999 and controlled for data source transitions and higher-order trends as present in the Uzbekistan data."

"They also accounted for spatial auto-correlation. These changes led to discrepancies in the estimates for climate damages by mid-century, with an increased uncertainty range (from 1129% to 631%) and a lower probability of damages diverging across emission scenarios by 2050 (from 99% to 90%). The authors acknowledge that these changes are too substantial for a correction, leading to the retraction of the paper."

"An updated version of the paper with these changes, which has yet to undergo peer review, is publicly available with continued open access to its data and methodology (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15984134). The authors intend to submit a revised version of the paper for peer review. If and when published, this retraction note will be updated to include a link to the new publication."

Results were retracted after findings proved sensitive to removal of Uzbekistan due to inaccuracies in underlying economic data for 19951999. Spatial auto-correlation was relevant for uncertainty ranges. Correcting Uzbekistan data for 19951999, controlling for data source transitions and higher-order trends, and accounting for spatial auto-correlation produced discrepancies in mid-century climate damage estimates, increasing the uncertainty range (from 1129% to 631%) and lowering the probability that damages diverge across emission scenarios by 2050 (from 99% to 90%). The changes were judged too substantial for correction. An updated version with revised data, methods, and open-access materials is publicly available pending peer review.

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