"The snow setup looks warm, dry-leaning, and highly dependent on timing, with a call for slightly below-average natural snowfall overall and a stop-start June."
"Temperature is the big lever in Australia: the snowpack lives close to the freezing line, so small shifts in air mass matter as much as raw precipitation."
"El Niño typically suppresses winter-spring rainfall across eastern Australia and makes the southeast warmer and drier, impacting the overall winter conditions."
"The Indian Ocean is quieter for now, with the IOD neutral, meaning there is no established wet Indian Ocean signal to help the start of the season."
The winter forecast for Australia in 2026 suggests slightly below-average natural snowfall, with a warm and dry trend. The best skiing conditions are expected mid-season, particularly in the Snowy Mountains and Mt. Hotham. Temperature fluctuations are crucial, as they can turn snow into rain and affect snowpack longevity. The end of La Niña and the potential development of El Niño may lead to warmer and drier conditions, impacting rainfall and snow cover. The Indian Ocean remains neutral, lacking signals to enhance early season precipitation.
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