"With the important caveat that initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production...- Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 20, 2026"
""Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve," Musk argued. "The speed of the production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are.""
""Almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast," he said."
Production for Tesla's Cybercab robotaxis and Optimus humanoid robots will ramp more slowly than earlier timelines anticipated. Initial production typically follows an S-curve, with early output constrained when many new parts and process steps are introduced. Almost all components and procedures for Cybercab and Optimus are new, producing a slow early production rate that should accelerate later. Cybercab production had been slated for April 2026. Optimus low production was targeted for 2025 with higher-volume output hoped for in 2026 to enable factory use and external customer deployment. Tesla did not immediately comment to Fortune. Tesla has a history of missed production timelines.
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