"The AI infrastructure trade lives and dies by what Jensen Huang says on this call. The stock has gained 5.2% year to date heading into tonight, with sentiment recently shifting to be much more positive across the past week."
"The headline revenue number will matter, but guidance for Q1 FY2027 may matter even more. The market wants to see that the Blackwell ramp continues compounding into calendar 2026. Anything below $72 billion in Q1 guidance would disappoint a market that has priced in relentless acceleration."
"Prediction markets are pricing in a 95% probability of an earnings beat tonight, with over $257,000 in volume behind that view. That level of consensus confidence raises the bar considerably. A beat that merely matches guidance won't be enough."
NVIDIA reports fiscal Q4 2026 earnings with significant market expectations. Wall Street forecasts $66.2 billion in revenue, $1.54 adjusted EPS, and 75.04% gross margin. Management guided for non-GAAP gross margins of 75% plus or minus 50 basis points. The critical metric is Q1 FY2027 guidance, where the market expects continued Blackwell ramp acceleration. Guidance below $72 billion would disappoint investors who have priced in relentless growth. Prediction markets show 95% probability of an earnings beat with over $257,000 in volume. Last quarter, NVIDIA delivered $57 billion in revenue, beating the $55 billion estimate by $2 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.30 versus $1.26 consensus.
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