The Blue Jays' top 5 regression candidates for 2026

"There were so many feel-good stories up and down the roster that it took a village to lift that team to within inches of baseball's pinnacle. Now comes the unenviable task of trying to do that team one better. One of the main reasons the squad got so far in the first place was the unexpected performances by key players who either had no expectations placed on them or experienced a significant bounce-back."

"It feels unfair to put Ernie Clement on this list, not only because he exceeded expectations during the regular season in 2025 by outperforming his projections (he had a 1.4 fWAR Steamer projection, but posted a 4.2 fWAR season), he was also unreal during the postseason, setting a new single postseason record for total hits."

"However, for the first time in his Blue Jays career, Clement actually has a path to full-time at-bats as their starting second baseman heading into 2026. In other years, he had to carve out a niche either as a backup third baseman, shortstop, or second baseman. With 157 regular-season games played last year (the most of any Blue Jay), there's runway for"

The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays achieved remarkable success, winning the AL East, defeating the Yankees and Mariners, and nearly winning the World Series through collective effort across their 40-man roster. Multiple feel-good stories and unexpected performances from players with low expectations or significant bouncebacks contributed to this success. Looking ahead to 2026, the team faces the challenge of repeating or improving on this achievement. Analysis of projection model discrepancies between Steamer and ZiPS identifies players likely to experience performance changes. Ernie Clement exemplifies this dynamic, having dramatically exceeded his 2025 projections with a 4.2 fWAR season and postseason record for hits, yet facing predicted regression according to projection models for 2026.

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