Recent observations have shown a significant decrease in the perceived risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, lowering the estimated chance from 3.1% to 1.5%. Richard Moissl from the European Space Agency believes this likelihood may continue to decline further. The asteroid has prompted the International Asteroid Warning Network to take action, marking a pivotal test of international protocols established post-Chelyabinsk. As telescopes improve, the detection of close calls will likely rise, highlighting ongoing efforts in planetary defense against asteroid threats.
New calculations indicate that the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 is much less likely to hit Earth than earlier measurements suggested, reducing its impact risk from 3.1% to 1.5%.
Richard Moissl notes that as data comes in, the uncertainty surrounding 2024 YR4's impact path is diminishing, which decreases its chance of hitting Earth below 1%.
The first sighting of YR4 triggered the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) to act, as it was the first asteroid with a notable risk identified since the 2013 Chelyabinsk incident.
As new asteroid-hunting telescopes come online, astronomers expect many more close calls like YR4, emphasizing that the question is not if, but when an asteroid threat will occur.
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