"What's really remarkable is that the public is not normally this negative about a government unless the economy is in the deepest of slumps. If the UK had double-digit unemployment and house prices were crashing, Labour's political predicament would be a lot easier to explain. Clearly, 2025 has been a far from vintage year for the economy, but it hasn't been that bad either."
"At 5.1%, the jobless rate is a full percentage point higher than when Labour came to power in July 2024, but still a long way short of the levels seen in the deep recessions of the early 1980s and early 1990s. What's more, for those in work, living standards have been rising, because wage growth has outpaced inflation. Governments normally benefit when voters are better off, but this one hasn't."
Labour's support has almost halved from 34% to 18% since the 2024 general election, creating unprecedented unpopularity. The scale and speed of the decline are unusually severe given only mediocre economic performance in 2025. Growth slowed after a strong start and unemployment rose to 5.1%, one percentage point higher than in July 2024, yet unemployment remains far below deep-recession levels. For employed households, living standards have improved as wage growth outpaced inflation. The economy has broadly continued patterns seen since the 2008 global financial crisis rather than plunging into a crisis. Past Labour governments endured worse postwar economic shocks without comparable falls in public support.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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