Labour made mistakes in its Caerphilly byelection defeat. It may be about to repeat them in Gorton and Denton | Will Hayward

"The attention given to this vote will be huge. The main talking points are the verdict it gives on Keir Starmer's premiership, the decision to stop Andy Burnham standing, Reform UK potentially taking the seat and the Greens being the current favourites. It is both an important election in its own right, and a microcosm of the biggest political questions facing the country."

"Given the state of flux that politics seems to be in, you might think it would be hard to predict what is going to happen. Luckily, there is a very good indicator of what we can expect: at the end of October, there was a byelection in the Welsh parliament seat of Caerphilly the similarities between that vote and Gorton and Denton are stark."

"Both areas had been safe Labour seats for a long time (though Gorton and Denton and its boundaries were created for the last election, its previous forms have been mainly Labour). Both were set against the backdrop of a deeply unpopular Labour government (in Caerphilly's case, it was the Welsh Labour government in Cardiff Bay). And in both, Reform committed huge resources towards winning the seat."

Gorton and Denton will hold a high-profile by-election in three weeks, attracting nationwide attention. Key issues include a verdict on Keir Starmer's premiership, the decision preventing Andy Burnham from standing, Reform UK’s strong investment, and the Greens emerging as early favourites. A close parallel exists with the Caerphilly by-election: both areas were long-standing Labour seats, each faced an unpopular Labour administration, and Reform devoted substantial resources. In Caerphilly a left-of-centre challenger, Plaid Cymru, overcame Reform. Nigel Farage campaigned for Reform’s candidate in Caerphilly and departed after Reform placed second, illustrating campaign dynamics and expectations.

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