"He finds that headline figures have fallen dramatically not because net zero has become cheaper, but because public bodies have changed methodologies and relied on increasingly unrealistic assumptions. The CCC now claims that achieving net zero between 2025 and 2050 will cost just £108 billion - down from earlier estimates of over £1 trillion. Turver shows this is done by moving the goalposts from measuring gross costs to comparing against a notional baseline scenario."
"By contrast, NESO's own modelling implies gross cash costs of £7.6 trillion for the transition, or more than £9 trillion once the carbon costs of emissions are included. Even these figures, the paper argues, are likely to be underestimates given recent failures of offshore wind projects and rising financing costs. The paper concludes that Britain has embarked on one of the most expensive economic transformations in its history without honest accounting or proper scrutiny."
Official costings now report dramatically lower headline figures for achieving net zero because methodologies were altered and estimates are compared to a notional baseline rather than presented as gross costs. The Climate Change Committee's figure of £108 billion for 2025–2050 replaces earlier estimates exceeding £1 trillion. More comprehensive modelling from NESO implies gross cash costs of about £7.6 trillion, rising above £9 trillion when carbon costs are included. Projections embed implausibly low costs for offshore wind, solar, heat pumps and electric vehicles and assume borrowing costs below market rates. Recent offshore wind failures and rising financing costs suggest even these larger estimates are likely understated, creating major fiscal and policy trade-offs requiring transparent accounting.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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